Ontario Election 2014 By the Numbers, May 12, 2014

We've got our first poll published friday, May 9, 2014 conducted by CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid. Here are the numbers:

Tories: 37% Liberals: 31% NDP: 28%
On the surface, this sounds like great news for the Tories. However, elections are not won by popular vote across the province, they are won riding to riding.
Here's where By The Numbers comes in.

If we compare the current poll vs. the actual vote cast in 2011, we see the following:

Tories: up 1.5% Liberals: down 6.5% NDP: up 5%

Using a simple calculation that assumes these numbers are province wide, we applied these numbers to the final vote percentages, riding by riding, in 2011, and here's what we found.

Tories: Gain 6 seats, and 1 is too close to call Liberals: Lose 6 seats with 1 too close to call NDP unchaged

So, By The Numbers, if the election were held today, based on the May 9 poll, the results would be:

Tories: 43 seats Liberals: 47 seats NDP: 17 seats, with 1 Toss Up

By the Numbers will keep analyzing results as new polls are released!