Ontario Election By The Numbers First Polls After June 3 Debate

Three polls have now come out querying voters after the Tuesday debate. They continue to show difference of opinions. However, perhaps more importantly, they each continue to be consistent within themselves, and perhaps the most discouraging for the Tories, the one poll that has shown them in the lead since the beginning of the campaign, the CP24/CTV/Ipsos Reid poll has the Tories down 1% from the last poll, May 29.

So, what does it mean. A NO CHANGE MINORITY GOVERNMENT HEADED BY THE LIBERALS.

Here are the numbers...

 and here is how the ElliotSchillerBlog Black Box, after weighting the 3 new polls predicts the outcome if the election were held today.

You might ask, how is it possible that even with the predicted likely to vote numbers heavily favouring the Conservatives, that the Liberals still look like they will garner the most seats in the election.

That is because, urban areas, with the BIG population densities lean left, and the rural areas lean right, and seats are apportioned based on population. If you look at the current house map, it's blue (Conservative) all over, but still the Liberals (red) run the government. That's because the population resides in the urban, not the rural areas. That's why the Conservatives can be ahead in likely to vote, but not ridings.