Ontario Election 2014 By the Numbers, May 12, 2014

We've got our first poll published friday, May 9, 2014 conducted by CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid. Here are the numbers:

Tories: 37% Liberals: 31% NDP: 28%
On the surface, this sounds like great news for the Tories. However, elections are not won by popular vote across the province, they are won riding to riding.
Here's where By The Numbers comes in.

If we compare the current poll vs. the actual vote cast in 2011, we see the following:

Tories: up 1.5% Liberals: down 6.5% NDP: up 5%

Using a simple calculation that assumes these numbers are province wide, we applied these numbers to the final vote percentages, riding by riding, in 2011, and here's what we found.

Tories: Gain 6 seats, and 1 is too close to call Liberals: Lose 6 seats with 1 too close to call NDP unchaged

So, By The Numbers, if the election were held today, based on the May 9 poll, the results would be:

Tories: 43 seats Liberals: 47 seats NDP: 17 seats, with 1 Toss Up

By the Numbers will keep analyzing results as new polls are released!

Tim Hudak Tries a Hail Mary Pass

The election campaign has finally begun for real. The early pollsters keep saying that if we voted today, we'd return the Liberals to the Ontario Parliament with a similar minority government to the one they had before the parliament was dissolved.

In essence, the voters would rather have a Liberal Party mired in corruption scandals, than the Progressive Conservative Party that sure looks like a throw back to the slash and burn days of Mike Harris.

Oops, that's not what the Conservatives want. And, for Mr. Hudak, it's more than likely that if he can't bring home a victory this time around, he's not going to be the party leader for much longer. So, what's a politician to do?

In the case of Mr. Hudak, he's decided that instead of running away from the "Mike Harris policy clone" weight around his neck, he's going to embrace it. How better to do this than to announce that he intends to cut 10% of the public sector work force, and to proudly proclaim that teachers would be targeted. Hello Mike Harris, goodbye education. And what does he claim is the good reason to do this, he would balance the budget one year sooner than the Liberals.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/tim-hudak-would-cut-100-000-public-sector-jobs-if-tories-win-ontario-election-1.2637436

The last time such a desperate effort to change the election handwriting on the wall was attempted was 2008 when Republican Presidential nominee John McCain, also faced with almost certain defeat, tried his own Sarah Palin for Vice President Hail Mary.

Let's hope this one works as poorly as the John McCain Hail Mary.

Top 10 Things Rob Ford and the Maple Leafs Have in Common

10. Both are popularly supported but still losers.

9. Both do their jobs while in a drunken stupor.

8. Both have the ability to suck all of the oxygen out of any conversation concerning their topic (politics/sports).

7. Both are less fit than their opponents.

6. Both are too inept to put the puck in the net.

5. Both have plenty to eat at home.

4. Both have a nation behind them. (Ford Nation and Leaf Nation)

3. Both have lots of money backing them.

2. Both spend a lot of time in the penalty box with no real consequences.

1. Both could win next year!

Top 10 Jimmy's that CBS is Considering to Replace Letterman

Once again, my crack team of investigative reporters have found a way to be a fly on the wall of the CBS boardroom where discussions are hot and heavy about who their Jimmy is going to be for late night television.
Regretfully, some of the executives at CBS are a bit "elderly", and so, some of their finalists are no longer among the living.
We're just reporting them as we hear them, and here they are:

10. Jimmy Carter

The former president of the U.S. is a top 10 contender for the job. His positives are name recognition, and his family is even bigger than Kimmel's, so, there's lot of opportunity to bring in inexpensive help. On the negative, most people are convinced that he is not playing with a full crop of peanuts.

9. Jimmy the Greek

The Greek is another strong contender for the job. He's done well on television before. However, CBS is concerned that given the impromptu, spontaneous nature of late night TV, this bigot might not last more than a few weeks before insulting almost everyone.

8. Jimmy Hoffa

Mr. Hoffa is an interesting candidate. His people have guaranteed CBS with at least an 11.4% share of the market, which coincidentally is the percentage of the population that is unionized.  The big negative with Jimmy is that CBS will have to build a studio around the goal post in the Meadowlands, where Jimmy Hoffa currently resides.

7. Jimmy Durante

This Jimmy is another excellent contender. He's got a large in with the entertainment community, and he sings, he dances, and he comes with his own version of Paul Shaeffer, Mrs. Calibash.

6. Jimmy Buffett

Another excellent prospect. This Jimmy also has an excellent relationship with the entertainment community, and as an added attraction, his band will be the best reggae group this side of the island of Jamaica.

5. Jimmy Ruffin

My choice. Why, because his brother David has "got sunshine on a cloudy day. When it's cold outside, he's got the month of May. I guess you'd say what could make him feel this way, His Girl, talking 'bout His Girl." And besides Jimmy knows what's become of a broken hearted.

4. Jimmy Page

Like Mr. Ruffin, he comes with excellent musical credentials. And, it's been rumored that he intends to lead the show from the band stand, with The Original Voice, Robert Plant doing the vocals behind the Late Show desk.

3. Jimmy Dorsey

Not since the Doc Severinson orchastra that backed up Johnny Carson has there been a wind instrument player and a big band leader on a late night talk show. Jimmy is the man that can change all that. Along with his brother Tommy, they have promised to have Elvis on the program at least monthly. Elvis first appeared on national television on CBS on the Tommy and Jimmy Dorsey variety show. So, he owes them.

2. Jimmy Piersall

This is my favourite Jimmy and I've loved him ever since I read "Fear Strikes Out" in my teens. Even if he doesn't make it as the host, get the book and read it. It's great for a 1957 look at mental health.

1. Jimmy Stewart

Because, "it's a wonderful life"

Rob Ford's Words in the Mouth of a Child

For those of you who are still thinking of voting for Rob Ford (oh, come on, you know who you are), here's another attempt to remind you of what your vote would say to the youth of Toronto. Enjoy!



Our children are listening!

Stephen Poloz Speech, March 18, 2014

When Stephen Poloz replaced Mark Carney as the head of the Bank of Canada, he had big shoes to fill. In my opinion, until yesterday, the jury was still out as to whether Mr. Poloz was up to the job. That is, until yesterday when he spoke to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce. While his words are, as the press has called it, "gloomy", they are reasonable and accurate.
I think everyone of us needs to read the text, not the interpretations of the news media. So, for the sake of public interest, here is the text as published in Bloomberg News.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-18/bank-of-canada-governor-poloz-s-speech-in-halifax-text-.html

My Father's Predictions About the Lottery and Now Marijuana. He's Right Again!

My father was right, once again. My Dad was an interesting guy, when it came to anything to do with monetary numbers, he was an expert. Not to mention his ability to add, subtract, or multiply any set of numbers in his head.
He was a butcher on the lower east side of New York, and, in his time, he saw organized crime raking in large dollars from "the numbers". When I was in my late teens, sometime in the early 1960's, he told me that there is way too much money in "the numbers" for the government not to take it over one day. And of course, today there are government run lotteries for everything.
And, how much money are these lotteries worth to government. Florida just concluded their February, 2014 Revenue Estimating Conference, and published the following report available at http://edr.state.fl.us/content/conferences/lottery/lotterysummary.pdf

And, what they concluded was that revenues from lotteries, in the State of Florida alone are estimated at more than $3 Billion per year! YIKES. Or, if my Dad were alive today, he would have said, "Lotteries are a way for the government to steal from the poor". Alas, I'm afraid he was right.

So, what would he have said about the legalization of Marijuana. Ditto. For way to long the governments have been giving away way too many dollars to organized and sometimes disorganized crime (I'm talking here about Jessie Pinkman), for the sale of drugs.

And sure enough, in the U.S., state by state they are looking at the legalization of marijuana. So, what is that worth?

According to the budget proposal released last week by Governor John Hickenlooper, Colorado expects to generate approximately $600 Million. And, Colorado is only the 22nd ranked State in terms of population. If they can rake in $600 Million, than imagine what the State of California, with over 6 times the population could be looking at. Simple math tells us that's over $3 Billion in annual revenue. And, neither of these figures even include the tax revenue from the business owners and employees involved in this new retail distribution venture.

And, what's happening in Canada with respect to marijuana. Medical marijuana is already legalized and production is beginning in earnest with the federal government estimating revenues to reach $1.6 Billion by 2024.

Is it too late to put my Dad up for a Nobel Prize in Economics?

On the non-medical front in Canada, The Liberals want to legalize it, but, the Conservatives are using that stance to call the leader unfit for the job of Prime Minister. So, it won't happen until the next election is over, and I suspect that regardless of which party is in power (I ignore the NDP, as does the rest of Canada), marijuana will begin its journey towards complete legalization.

In the meantime, just yesterday, Peter McKay announced that the Conservative Government is looking at potentially changing policy to allow police officers to issue tickets for marijuana possession. Now that's a clever way to be on both sides of the same issue. Rather than risk losing the entire Marijuana Nation vote to the Liberals, they are hoping to get some of it back through this measure.

In the meantime, ElliotSchillerBlog Industries has just invested Billions into the ZigZag paper company, the official supplier of these new marijuana tickets, which will not only be good enough to generate revenue for the government, but good enough to smoke. Good thinking Canada, and good thinking Blog Industries.