Ontario Election By The Numbers May 17 Poll (EKOS Research)

The lastest poll, conducted between May 13, 2014 and May 15, 2014, after Tim Hudak announced his million new jobs and 100,000 less jobs plan, suggests that voters don't buy it. EKOS Research results suggests the following:

What this means is that there are now 2 Conservative seats that are statistically too close to call, and that therefore, the Liberals could win, and likewise,1 NDP seat that the Liberals could also win. So, here's what we see as the latest seat count if the election were held today:

So, remind me again why we are having this election?

Ontario Election 2014 By the Numbers (May 14 (Forum Research and CP24,et.al. polls)

Forum Research came out with their first poll since Tory leader Hudak called for 100,000 job cuts in the public service, and, according to this poll, it's not going over that well with the voters. To be precise 62% of voters strongly disapprove . Further, the Tory approval rating stands at 35% while the Liberals garner a 38% voter approval rating, with the NDP coming in at only 21%.   On the other hand, the second CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid poll came out today with a completely different view of the electorate. It suggests a 39% lead for the Tories, with only 30% for the Liberals, and 24% for the NDP. They caveat their poll as "among decided voters".

So, if we ignore the fact that comparing "decided voters" to all potential voters might be like comparing apples to oranges, and simply split the difference, here's what By the Numbers now predicts for the next parliament.

Still looks like a minority government to this pollster.

Ontario Election 2014 By the Numbers, May 12, 2014

We've got our first poll published friday, May 9, 2014 conducted by CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid. Here are the numbers:

Tories: 37% Liberals: 31% NDP: 28%
On the surface, this sounds like great news for the Tories. However, elections are not won by popular vote across the province, they are won riding to riding.
Here's where By The Numbers comes in.

If we compare the current poll vs. the actual vote cast in 2011, we see the following:

Tories: up 1.5% Liberals: down 6.5% NDP: up 5%

Using a simple calculation that assumes these numbers are province wide, we applied these numbers to the final vote percentages, riding by riding, in 2011, and here's what we found.

Tories: Gain 6 seats, and 1 is too close to call Liberals: Lose 6 seats with 1 too close to call NDP unchaged

So, By The Numbers, if the election were held today, based on the May 9 poll, the results would be:

Tories: 43 seats Liberals: 47 seats NDP: 17 seats, with 1 Toss Up

By the Numbers will keep analyzing results as new polls are released!

Tim Hudak Tries a Hail Mary Pass

The election campaign has finally begun for real. The early pollsters keep saying that if we voted today, we'd return the Liberals to the Ontario Parliament with a similar minority government to the one they had before the parliament was dissolved.

In essence, the voters would rather have a Liberal Party mired in corruption scandals, than the Progressive Conservative Party that sure looks like a throw back to the slash and burn days of Mike Harris.

Oops, that's not what the Conservatives want. And, for Mr. Hudak, it's more than likely that if he can't bring home a victory this time around, he's not going to be the party leader for much longer. So, what's a politician to do?

In the case of Mr. Hudak, he's decided that instead of running away from the "Mike Harris policy clone" weight around his neck, he's going to embrace it. How better to do this than to announce that he intends to cut 10% of the public sector work force, and to proudly proclaim that teachers would be targeted. Hello Mike Harris, goodbye education. And what does he claim is the good reason to do this, he would balance the budget one year sooner than the Liberals.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/tim-hudak-would-cut-100-000-public-sector-jobs-if-tories-win-ontario-election-1.2637436

The last time such a desperate effort to change the election handwriting on the wall was attempted was 2008 when Republican Presidential nominee John McCain, also faced with almost certain defeat, tried his own Sarah Palin for Vice President Hail Mary.

Let's hope this one works as poorly as the John McCain Hail Mary.

Top 10 Things Rob Ford and the Maple Leafs Have in Common

10. Both are popularly supported but still losers.

9. Both do their jobs while in a drunken stupor.

8. Both have the ability to suck all of the oxygen out of any conversation concerning their topic (politics/sports).

7. Both are less fit than their opponents.

6. Both are too inept to put the puck in the net.

5. Both have plenty to eat at home.

4. Both have a nation behind them. (Ford Nation and Leaf Nation)

3. Both have lots of money backing them.

2. Both spend a lot of time in the penalty box with no real consequences.

1. Both could win next year!

Top 10 Jimmy's that CBS is Considering to Replace Letterman

Once again, my crack team of investigative reporters have found a way to be a fly on the wall of the CBS boardroom where discussions are hot and heavy about who their Jimmy is going to be for late night television.
Regretfully, some of the executives at CBS are a bit "elderly", and so, some of their finalists are no longer among the living.
We're just reporting them as we hear them, and here they are:

10. Jimmy Carter

The former president of the U.S. is a top 10 contender for the job. His positives are name recognition, and his family is even bigger than Kimmel's, so, there's lot of opportunity to bring in inexpensive help. On the negative, most people are convinced that he is not playing with a full crop of peanuts.

9. Jimmy the Greek

The Greek is another strong contender for the job. He's done well on television before. However, CBS is concerned that given the impromptu, spontaneous nature of late night TV, this bigot might not last more than a few weeks before insulting almost everyone.

8. Jimmy Hoffa

Mr. Hoffa is an interesting candidate. His people have guaranteed CBS with at least an 11.4% share of the market, which coincidentally is the percentage of the population that is unionized.  The big negative with Jimmy is that CBS will have to build a studio around the goal post in the Meadowlands, where Jimmy Hoffa currently resides.

7. Jimmy Durante

This Jimmy is another excellent contender. He's got a large in with the entertainment community, and he sings, he dances, and he comes with his own version of Paul Shaeffer, Mrs. Calibash.

6. Jimmy Buffett

Another excellent prospect. This Jimmy also has an excellent relationship with the entertainment community, and as an added attraction, his band will be the best reggae group this side of the island of Jamaica.

5. Jimmy Ruffin

My choice. Why, because his brother David has "got sunshine on a cloudy day. When it's cold outside, he's got the month of May. I guess you'd say what could make him feel this way, His Girl, talking 'bout His Girl." And besides Jimmy knows what's become of a broken hearted.

4. Jimmy Page

Like Mr. Ruffin, he comes with excellent musical credentials. And, it's been rumored that he intends to lead the show from the band stand, with The Original Voice, Robert Plant doing the vocals behind the Late Show desk.

3. Jimmy Dorsey

Not since the Doc Severinson orchastra that backed up Johnny Carson has there been a wind instrument player and a big band leader on a late night talk show. Jimmy is the man that can change all that. Along with his brother Tommy, they have promised to have Elvis on the program at least monthly. Elvis first appeared on national television on CBS on the Tommy and Jimmy Dorsey variety show. So, he owes them.

2. Jimmy Piersall

This is my favourite Jimmy and I've loved him ever since I read "Fear Strikes Out" in my teens. Even if he doesn't make it as the host, get the book and read it. It's great for a 1957 look at mental health.

1. Jimmy Stewart

Because, "it's a wonderful life"

Rob Ford's Words in the Mouth of a Child

For those of you who are still thinking of voting for Rob Ford (oh, come on, you know who you are), here's another attempt to remind you of what your vote would say to the youth of Toronto. Enjoy!



Our children are listening!