Monday, October 20, 2014

World Series Prediction Time

If there is any doubt in anyone's mind, I love numbers. So, I was hoping to do a statistical analysis of the Kansas City Royals vs. the San Franciso Giants to determine who would win the World Series.


Regretfully, the overall stats are like looking in the mirror, they're the same. Here are some key stats for each team:

So, now what can we use to make a prediction?


 Let's look at pitching staffs. since a big difference between the regular season and the playoffs is that the starting pitching staff is reduced to 2 or 3 pitchers versus 4 or even 5 in the regular season, let's only look at the announced starters and the overall performance of the bullpen.

Let's focus on:
       Quality Starts, which is measured as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs;
        Team Holds which is a measure of how well the middle relievers maintain a lead when the starting pitcher leaves the game;
        Saves, which is measure of how well the "closer" ensures a victory when the team enters the last few innings with a small lead.

Here are some differences. KC has almost a 10% edge in Quality Starts. But, SF has an almost similar edge in the bullpen. On the other hand, SF has a better WHIP number (less base runners usually means less runs scored), and if we ignore Peavy's stats from Boston and only look at his San Fran stats (starting end of July), Peavy had an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 1.04. If those are the stats, then San Fran is a clear winning on the mound.

My prediction: San Francisco wins the World Series 2014.

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