Thursday, May 29, 2014

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 27 Poll (Forum Research)

Forum Research, which previous showed the Liberals in the lead, have now just released their latest poll indicating a dead heat. Here are the numbers:

These numbers do little to change the predicted outcome of a minority Liberal government. Further, based on these numbers, even if every seat too close to call winds up going to the Conservatives, it's still a Liberal minority government.
Here are the numbers.

In this observers opinion, the problem with why Tim Hudak can't garner more support is not his  unsupportable 1 million new jobs plan, but his 100,000 civil servant job cuts. Ontario is a fiscally conservative electorate, with a socially conscious heart. The 100,000 cuts make Mr. Hudak appear to be a leader without that much required socially conscious heart.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 22 Poll (CP24/CTV/Ipsoso)

Another CP24/CTV/Ipsos poll, and again, a very different picture from every other pollster. And, a very different question. This poll is asking for decided voter support, not anyone else. While this is a much more promising poll for the Tories, and does indicate that their support is certainly much more committed to actually voting on election day, it's a drop in Tim Hudak support of 4% in less than 2 weeks.
In putting these numbers through my black box calculator, here's what they say.

What does that mean for who forms the next government...

A very narrow Liberal minority. 

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 22 Poll (Forum Research)

The latest poll, released this morning, conducted by Forum Research suggests that the Liberals are increasing their lead against the Conservatives based on a comparison to last weeks' EKOS Research poll, and last weeks' Forum Research poll. Both parties gained a bit at the expense of the NDP.
Here is how the numbers stand now:

Based on these numbers, our seat by seat analysis suggests that one of the 2 Liberal/Conservative toss up seats can now be confidently moved to the Liberal caucus, meaning that, if the election was held today, here is what the seat count would look like:

Another Liberal minority government, and both other party leaders should be worried about their leadership positions post election.

Monday, May 19, 2014

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 17 Poll (EKOS Research)

The lastest poll, conducted between May 13, 2014 and May 15, 2014, after Tim Hudak announced his million new jobs and 100,000 less jobs plan, suggests that voters don't buy it. EKOS Research results suggests the following:

What this means is that there are now 2 Conservative seats that are statistically too close to call, and that therefore, the Liberals could win, and likewise,1 NDP seat that the Liberals could also win. So, here's what we see as the latest seat count if the election were held today:

So, remind me again why we are having this election?

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Ontario Election 2014 By the Numbers (May 14 (Forum Research and CP24, polls)

Forum Research came out with their first poll since Tory leader Hudak called for 100,000 job cuts in the public service, and, according to this poll, it's not going over that well with the voters. To be precise 62% of voters strongly disapprove . Further, the Tory approval rating stands at 35% while the Liberals garner a 38% voter approval rating, with the NDP coming in at only 21%.   On the other hand, the second CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid poll came out today with a completely different view of the electorate. It suggests a 39% lead for the Tories, with only 30% for the Liberals, and 24% for the NDP. They caveat their poll as "among decided voters".

So, if we ignore the fact that comparing "decided voters" to all potential voters might be like comparing apples to oranges, and simply split the difference, here's what By the Numbers now predicts for the next parliament.

Still looks like a minority government to this pollster.

Monday, May 12, 2014

Ontario Election 2014 By the Numbers, May 12, 2014

We've got our first poll published friday, May 9, 2014 conducted by CP24/CTV Ipsos Reid. Here are the numbers:
Tories: 37% Liberals: 31% NDP: 28%
On the surface, this sounds like great news for the Tories. However, elections are not won by popular vote across the province, they are won riding to riding.
Here's where By The Numbers comes in.

If we compare the current poll vs. the actual vote cast in 2011, we see the following:
Tories: up 1.5% Liberals: down 6.5% NDP: up 5%

Using a simple calculation that assumes these numbers are province wide, we applied these numbers to the final vote percentages, riding by riding, in 2011, and here's what we found.
Tories: Gain 6 seats, and 1 is too close to call Liberals: Lose 6 seats with 1 too close to call NDP unchaged

So, By The Numbers, if the election were held today, based on the May 9 poll, the results would be:
Tories: 43 seats Liberals: 47 seats NDP: 17 seats, with 1 Toss Up

By the Numbers will keep analyzing results as new polls are released!

Friday, May 9, 2014

Tim Hudak Tries a Hail Mary Pass

The election campaign has finally begun for real. The early pollsters keep saying that if we voted today, we'd return the Liberals to the Ontario Parliament with a similar minority government to the one they had before the parliament was dissolved.

In essence, the voters would rather have a Liberal Party mired in corruption scandals, than the Progressive Conservative Party that sure looks like a throw back to the slash and burn days of Mike Harris.

Oops, that's not what the Conservatives want. And, for Mr. Hudak, it's more than likely that if he can't bring home a victory this time around, he's not going to be the party leader for much longer. So, what's a politician to do?

In the case of Mr. Hudak, he's decided that instead of running away from the "Mike Harris policy clone" weight around his neck, he's going to embrace it. How better to do this than to announce that he intends to cut 10% of the public sector work force, and to proudly proclaim that teachers would be targeted. Hello Mike Harris, goodbye education. And what does he claim is the good reason to do this, he would balance the budget one year sooner than the Liberals.

The last time such a desperate effort to change the election handwriting on the wall was attempted was 2008 when Republican Presidential nominee John McCain, also faced with almost certain defeat, tried his own Sarah Palin for Vice President Hail Mary.

Let's hope this one works as poorly as the John McCain Hail Mary.