Friday, May 23, 2014

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 22 Poll (CP24/CTV/Ipsoso)

Another CP24/CTV/Ipsos poll, and again, a very different picture from every other pollster. And, a very different question. This poll is asking for decided voter support, not anyone else. While this is a much more promising poll for the Tories, and does indicate that their support is certainly much more committed to actually voting on election day, it's a drop in Tim Hudak support of 4% in less than 2 weeks.
In putting these numbers through my black box calculator, here's what they say.

What does that mean for who forms the next government...

A very narrow Liberal minority. 

1 comment:

  1. Well, it turns out at and I agree exactly on the seat by seat election results, EXCEPT, somehow, I have an extra seat in there. I said the NDP would have 31 seats making 108 in parliament, instead of 107. Upon reviewing my numbers, I moved Trinity-Spadina to the Liberals, but forgot to take it away from the NDP. Alas