Ontario Provincial Election Results (Prediction)

The election campaign is winding down and I've been stalling this time with my predicted results because of the last minute surge by the NDP in yet another election. However, I don't think I can stall any longer. As in the Federal Election, my predictions are based on the following mathematical calculations. I analyzed the results of the 2007 Provincial Election, and compared them to the last poll results in that campaign. Then, I looked at the current predictions for the 2011 election. For example, the riding of Nippissing was won by the Liberals over the PC by 1% in 2007. Considering that the Liberals are down by greater than 1% and the PC are up by greater than 1%, I predict that the Liberals will lose that seat to the Conservatives.
Like everyone else, I am predicting a Liberal minority government, but not by much......