Monday, September 3, 2012

Quebec Election 2012, My Predictions

As with the last 3 elections, I am once again going to predict the outcome of this election. (Note to Reader: in the last provincial election, I was only off by 2 seats!).
The mathematics behind my predictions come from looking at the results of the last election, looking at the popular vote percentages from the last election, looking at the current poll predictions with respect to popular vote, which now at the 23rd hour seem relatively stable, and applying those results to any seats that were not won by at least a 20% margin in the last election ( note: I normally use 15%, but this is Quebec, a traditionally more volatile electorate). Putting all of these factors into an excel spreadsheet, and then manually modifying the results based on my personal belief, which in the last federal election was that the NDP was going to do better than the last poll results showed, and in this election, that the PQ is going to do slightly worse than the polls are predicting, gives me the number of seats that each party will win.
However, just as in the last federal election, where the thing that threw me was Quebec, and considering that this is an election only in Quebec, I am not overly confident in my predictions. First of all,  I don't have a very good base from the 2008 Quebec National Assembly. That election saw the Action Democratique win 7 seats, and today they are not a factor. To further confuse me, the CAQ did not exist in the 2008 election. So, again, to compensate for these factors, I looked at seats that Liberals won by less than 20 percentage points and how the PQ did, and, made an educated guess based on the CAQ popularity polling numbers.
I don't think I can top my almost perfect crystal balling of the last Ontario election, but tomorrow will tell.

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