Friday, June 21, 2013

You Gotta Believe..The Amazing Blue Jays of 2013..Maybe Not?

The Jays have now won 8 in a row, with a lineup that should have been playing 600 ball since the start of the season. So, with 91 games to play, are they a playoff contender? Highly unlikely. Let me explain.
You all know that I love statistics. (Remember I predicted the last provincial election, only missing 2 ridings, better than any news pundit did, by simply using previous history and current trend percentages, see blog posting October 4, 2011). So, let's look at the most number of losses that a team has had over the past 10 years, and still made the playoffs. Here are the stats....

As you can see, in the American League, over the past 10 years, the average number of losses allowed to still make the playoffs is 67. And, it's even tougher in the AL East with an average of 65.5. So, let's give the Blue Jays the benefit of a bad year overall and let's see what it takes for them to make the playoffs with 65,66, or 67, but also, with 68,69,70 or 71 losses.

Is anyone depressed yet? The best team in the majors right now is the St. Louis Cardinals with a winning percentage of 0.644. However, the next best team is the Boston Red Sox with 0.587.
So, if the Blue Jays play as well as the Boston Red Sox, they don't make the playoffs, and, if they play the rest of the season as well as the Cardinals are playing now, they will still finish with either 68 or 69 losses which has barely been enough to make the playoffs in the AL East.

What the Blue Jays need to do is play the way the Amazing Mets of 1969 played. That team began the season with an 18-23 record through their first 41 games, but, went on to win 82 of their remaining games for a win/loss percentage of 0.678.

Possible, yes, probable, NO.

But then again, maybe this is next year!

No comments:

Post a Comment