Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Ontario Election By The Numbers June June 9, 10 Polls (Ekos, Abacus)

As the election heads into its last few days, we continue to see discrepancies in the polling numbers. However, all pollsters, excluding Ipsos Reid, have had the Liberals in front since the start. The June 9 poll released by Abacus Data and the June 10 poll released by Ekos Research look as follows:

If we average the two, this is very good news for the NDP. It suggests that they will most likely be able to hold 20 seats, not be reduced to 14 as some analysts have suggested. Nevertheless, it's probably very bad news for their leader. Ms. Horwath, following election day, will have no choice but to resign. What's her alternative? Support a Liberal minority government that she overthrew?

If the voting patterns are equivalent to the party support, AND THAT'S A BIG IF, then, the final seat count will look like:

However, if Ipsos Reid is correct, and the voters most likely to head to the polls heavily favour the Conservative Party, it's a very different seat map come election day. In my opinion, that is why we are seeing so many Liberal adds warning of the dangers of Tim Hudak, they are not aimed at picking up new support, but in getting the vote out.

People have been dying for years for the privilege to vote, we all need to get to the polls and exercise our responsibility.

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