Sunday, June 1, 2014

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 29 Poll (CP24/ CTV/ Ipsos Reid)

Throughout the election campaign, the CP24/ CTV/ Ipsos Reid poll has continued to show the Tories in the lead based upon committed voters. This week, they decided to ask the party support question like every other polling organization, but, to continue to ask the committed voter question, only now, to ask it as "motivated to vote". While Tory support has firmed up one point, on the motivated question, the Liberals have dropped one point. Not good news for the Liberals, if they can't somehow motivate their supporters to go to the polls.
On the party support question, the standard one asked by every organization, CP24 falls in line with other recent polls. Here are the numbers.

Rather than put a blended number based on some formulated weighted average, into my black box program, I decided to put in both numbers as is, and see what the seat count would look like based on party support, and, based on most motivated to vote. Here are the results.

Bottom line, if the Liberals can get out the vote, they form a minority government. However, if the Liberals cannot motivate their base to get out and vote, and CP24 et. al. are correct about who is motivated to vote, it's a decent Conservative minority, and I suspect, the NDP would have no choice but to support them.

So, who do you want for your next government, the current Liberals who can't stop spending your money foolishly, or the One Million Man plus or minus Nine Hundred Thousand Men "Job" Creator Conservatives who don't understand the difference between a year and a man year, or as my fifth grade teacher would have said, you can't add can you?

I think Rob Ford might have a point, politics does look better when you're on crack.

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