Ontario Election By The Numbers June June 9, 10 Polls (Ekos, Abacus)

As the election heads into its last few days, we continue to see discrepancies in the polling numbers. However, all pollsters, excluding Ipsos Reid, have had the Liberals in front since the start. The June 9 poll released by Abacus Data and the June 10 poll released by Ekos Research look as follows:

If we average the two, this is very good news for the NDP. It suggests that they will most likely be able to hold 20 seats, not be reduced to 14 as some analysts have suggested. Nevertheless, it's probably very bad news for their leader. Ms. Horwath, following election day, will have no choice but to resign. What's her alternative? Support a Liberal minority government that she overthrew?

If the voting patterns are equivalent to the party support, AND THAT'S A BIG IF, then, the final seat count will look like:

However, if Ipsos Reid is correct, and the voters most likely to head to the polls heavily favour the Conservative Party, it's a very different seat map come election day. In my opinion, that is why we are seeing so many Liberal adds warning of the dangers of Tim Hudak, they are not aimed at picking up new support, but in getting the vote out.

People have been dying for years for the privilege to vote, we all need to get to the polls and exercise our responsibility.

Ontario Election By The Numbers First Polls After June 3 Debate

Three polls have now come out querying voters after the Tuesday debate. They continue to show difference of opinions. However, perhaps more importantly, they each continue to be consistent within themselves, and perhaps the most discouraging for the Tories, the one poll that has shown them in the lead since the beginning of the campaign, the CP24/CTV/Ipsos Reid poll has the Tories down 1% from the last poll, May 29.

So, what does it mean. A NO CHANGE MINORITY GOVERNMENT HEADED BY THE LIBERALS.

Here are the numbers...

 and here is how the ElliotSchillerBlog Black Box, after weighting the 3 new polls predicts the outcome if the election were held today.

You might ask, how is it possible that even with the predicted likely to vote numbers heavily favouring the Conservatives, that the Liberals still look like they will garner the most seats in the election.

That is because, urban areas, with the BIG population densities lean left, and the rural areas lean right, and seats are apportioned based on population. If you look at the current house map, it's blue (Conservative) all over, but still the Liberals (red) run the government. That's because the population resides in the urban, not the rural areas. That's why the Conservatives can be ahead in likely to vote, but not ridings.

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 29 Poll (CP24/ CTV/ Ipsos Reid)

Throughout the election campaign, the CP24/ CTV/ Ipsos Reid poll has continued to show the Tories in the lead based upon committed voters. This week, they decided to ask the party support question like every other polling organization, but, to continue to ask the committed voter question, only now, to ask it as "motivated to vote". While Tory support has firmed up one point, on the motivated question, the Liberals have dropped one point. Not good news for the Liberals, if they can't somehow motivate their supporters to go to the polls.
On the party support question, the standard one asked by every organization, CP24 falls in line with other recent polls. Here are the numbers.

Rather than put a blended number based on some formulated weighted average, into my black box program, I decided to put in both numbers as is, and see what the seat count would look like based on party support, and, based on most motivated to vote. Here are the results.

Bottom line, if the Liberals can get out the vote, they form a minority government. However, if the Liberals cannot motivate their base to get out and vote, and CP24 et. al. are correct about who is motivated to vote, it's a decent Conservative minority, and I suspect, the NDP would have no choice but to support them.

So, who do you want for your next government, the current Liberals who can't stop spending your money foolishly, or the One Million Man plus or minus Nine Hundred Thousand Men "Job" Creator Conservatives who don't understand the difference between a year and a man year, or as my fifth grade teacher would have said, you can't add can you?

I think Rob Ford might have a point, politics does look better when you're on crack.

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 27 Poll (Forum Research)

Forum Research, which previous showed the Liberals in the lead, have now just released their latest poll indicating a dead heat. Here are the numbers:

These numbers do little to change the predicted outcome of a minority Liberal government. Further, based on these numbers, even if every seat too close to call winds up going to the Conservatives, it's still a Liberal minority government.
Here are the numbers.

In this observers opinion, the problem with why Tim Hudak can't garner more support is not his  unsupportable 1 million new jobs plan, but his 100,000 civil servant job cuts. Ontario is a fiscally conservative electorate, with a socially conscious heart. The 100,000 cuts make Mr. Hudak appear to be a leader without that much required socially conscious heart.

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 22 Poll (CP24/CTV/Ipsoso)

Another CP24/CTV/Ipsos poll, and again, a very different picture from every other pollster. And, a very different question. This poll is asking for decided voter support, not anyone else. While this is a much more promising poll for the Tories, and does indicate that their support is certainly much more committed to actually voting on election day, it's a drop in Tim Hudak support of 4% in less than 2 weeks.
In putting these numbers through my black box calculator, here's what they say.

What does that mean for who forms the next government...

A very narrow Liberal minority. 

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 22 Poll (Forum Research)

The latest poll, released this morning, conducted by Forum Research suggests that the Liberals are increasing their lead against the Conservatives based on a comparison to last weeks' EKOS Research poll, and last weeks' Forum Research poll. Both parties gained a bit at the expense of the NDP.
Here is how the numbers stand now:

Based on these numbers, our seat by seat analysis suggests that one of the 2 Liberal/Conservative toss up seats can now be confidently moved to the Liberal caucus, meaning that, if the election was held today, here is what the seat count would look like:

Another Liberal minority government, and both other party leaders should be worried about their leadership positions post election.

Ontario Election By The Numbers May 17 Poll (EKOS Research)

The lastest poll, conducted between May 13, 2014 and May 15, 2014, after Tim Hudak announced his million new jobs and 100,000 less jobs plan, suggests that voters don't buy it. EKOS Research results suggests the following:

What this means is that there are now 2 Conservative seats that are statistically too close to call, and that therefore, the Liberals could win, and likewise,1 NDP seat that the Liberals could also win. So, here's what we see as the latest seat count if the election were held today:

So, remind me again why we are having this election?